The Chiefs may be 4-0, but they haven't won a game by more than a possession yet this season and they're pretty banged up on offense (with Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isaiah Pacheco hurt). I'll bet on a Saints team that is 2-2, but still has a +57 point differential and the best net EPA in football.
I've got a big-payout parlay, banking on a Saints upset in this one. The Chiefs have a great rushing defense, so this upset parlay is looking at a big passing day for New Orleans:
- Saints ML (+200)
- Derek Carr O225 Passing Yards (+120)
- Chris Olave O50 Rec Yards (-170)
A lot of playmakers in New Orleans. Some of these teams would kill to have just one game-changing athlete -- Saints have several, even if the quarterback Derek Carr never inspires a ton of confidence, at least with me.
They are not playing Kansas City with its full complement of players -- not even close.
When I put all the factors together, it's enough for me to fade the Chiefs at Arrowhead in primetime.
K.C. knows how to win close games. I think this one is close, so I'll take the Saints +5.5
The Saints have quietly been one of the NFL's best redzone defenses this season and the Chiefs are without 2 of their best redzone targets (Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco).
I'm expecting the Chiefs to have a couple drives stall in the redzone in this one and that should help Butker rack up some points.
Bet placed 4:36 pm ET on Saturday, October 5.
The Saints offense reminds me of a bully who can beat up a weaker opponents but when looks bad vs. a quality opponent.
The Saints offense looked bad vs. Eagles DC Vic Fangio because he has a brilliant defensive mind who can stand toe-to-toe with the Saints. Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnolu is another brilliant mind who should be able to exploit these Saints.
New Orleans will be without several important cast members including Taysom Hill, Cesar Ruiz, Willie Gay, and Ruiz's backup Shane Lemieux.
Bet placed at 1:05 am ET on Monday, October 7.
The Patriots offense is looking completely inept. They're averaging under 9 points per game and the Texans should be able to keep them in check as well.
Both teams have concerns along the offensive line and potential injuries to starting skill position players that should limit their output in this game.
I'm expecting this one to be a bit of a rock fight.
Bet placed 8:37 pm ET on Sunday, October 6.
The Chargers will be well rested coming off a bye week and the Broncos have a cluster injury at RT. Mike McGlinchey, their starting RT is already on IR and they believe his backup, Alex Palczewski suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 5.
It's never good to have injuries at the tackle position, but it's especially bad facing a chargers team with Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. We aren't sure Bosa is going to play, so keep an eye on his practice participation this week.
Pick made 8:44 pm ET on Sunday, October 6
I love this price as most of the market is at +3.5 when I made this bet, but Fanduel had a bargain if you like the Giants side -- and I do.
With a week off to remove the cobwebs from his concussion, I'm expecting Malike Nabers back for this one. The Giants showed last week that they don't need him to win, but it sure does help.
Cincinnati's defeat in OT last week felt like a soul crusher, so I wouldn't be shocked if they came out with low energy in this one. That'd be a problem vs. a fiesty Giants squad.
Bet placed at 9:01 pm ET on Sunday, October 6
| Last 100 | To Win | ATS | Total O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| $ Units (Opening) | -$515 | -$117 | $257 |
| $ Units (Closing) | -$441 | $730 | -$159 |
| Record (Opening) | 53 - 44 - 3 | 51 - 46 - 3 | 53 - 44 - 3 |
| Record (Closing) | 53 - 44 - 3 | 54 - 42 - 4 | 51 - 48 - 1 |
For every matchup in an NFL season, our NFL computer produces selections for a variety of different betting angles. Our computer picks are based on a proprietary algorithm that values each team in the current week to produce moneyline, spread, and point total selections.
The table above (below the game picks) tracks our NFL computer's results over the last 100 games, outlining the record and profit for selections (based on $100 unit size). We track the profit based on both opening and closing lines for every matchup.
How to Use NFL Computer Picks
The easiest way to utilize our computer picks is to simply follow our selections for every matchup, what you'd call "tailing the computer." But, there are other ways to utilize our NFL computer picks, as well.
You can use our NFL computer as a jumping-off point to do more research into specific lines, cross-referencing with expert picks (which can be found above the selections for some matchups), recent NFL betting trends, and more.
As well, you can gauge the confidence of the matchup. The larger the projected score, the more confident the computer is in a specific pick.
Or, if you want to implement a system (betting only on underdogs, for example) you can look for matchups in which our computer likes the underdog to inform which picks you're going to hone in on for a given week.
We've got these computer picks for every sport you're looking to wager on, as well:
Odds Shark's Free Computer Picks
Moneyline
NFL moneyline moneyline picks are the simplest way to get in on the NFL action. All you have to do is simply bet on which team you think will win the game.
For moneyline picks, the favorite is represented with a minus sign (-) in front of the odds, while the underdog has a plus (+). However, you don't get the same profit for picking an underdog compared to a favorite. If the favored team is -120, a $100 bet on them would pay out $80 in profit and $180 total. The underdog winning at +150 would pay out a $150 profit, $250 total.
We've got a complete breakdown of how to read NFL moneyline odds for these NFL computer picks.
Spread
While moneyline picks are the simplest, picking NFL games against the spread is probably the most common wager for regular NFL bettors.
To bet an NFL spread, you wager on whether a team will win by a certain number of points or more or if they'll lose by fewer points than the spread. For example, if the spread is -6.5 for the New England Patriots, you would win the bet if they win the game by 7 points or more. Or if a team is +6.5, you're betting on if they'll win outright or lose by fewer than 6.5 points.
There is a correlation between moneyline odds and the spread, as books set these lines based on the same information.
You can read more about NFL spreads here.
Totals (Over/Under)
If you aren’t entirely sold on which NFL team will win or cover in an NFL game, you can still use our NFL computer picks to bet on the point total.
As opposed to taking a side, in total or over/under betting you wager on whether both NFL teams will combine for a final score of more than (over) or less than (under) the total number of points set by oddsmakers.
The computer picks and your handicapping of totals are more about how you think both teams will score points, not which team has the edge to win.
More NFL Picks & Betting Tools
Our NFL Computer Picks are a great way to place weekly football wagers, but you should also consider handicapping games yourself using some of our other tools. We've got dedicated an NFL trends page, power rankings, and an NFL database for you to gauge the talent and value of each team. We've also got updated NFL scores and NFL prop picks on our NFL hub each week.
If you're looking to bet on long-term futures this football season, check out some of our other dedicated pages:
